Looking at the situation of Thai rice in 2023, production 34 million tons, the risk factor for trade is still high

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)The world rice harvest in 2022/2023 was reported to be 1,027.75 million rice, a decrease of 1.01%, a yield of 503.69 million tons of rice, a decrease of 2.21% and a yield of 731 kilograms, a decrease of 1.30% It is expected that the global rice consumption was 517.77 million tons of rice A decrease of 0.41 % in the global rice trade It is expected that there will be 52.99 million tons of milled rice, down by 3.72%.

Export Australia, Myanmar, Guyana, Paraguay, Vietnam and Thailand are expected to export more. Among the countries expected to reduce exports are Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, China, the European Union, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Uruguay and the United States. import The European Union, Ghana, Mexico, Mozambique, Nepal, South Africa, United Arab Emirates are expected to do so The UK and the US will import more Countries expecting lower imports include China, Iraq, Nigeria, Philippines and Senegal.

In terms of stocks at the end of the 2022/23 world rice year, the amount is expected to be 169.02 million tonnes of rice, down from 183.10 million tonnes of rice, down 7.69% compared to the previous year, with the Philippines having the largest increase in stock. Countries expected to have lower inventories include China, India, Indonesia, the United States, and Thailand.

Chantanon Wannakhajorn, Secretary General of the Office of Agricultural Economics (Sor Kor. ) He said Regarding the rice situation in Thailand In total, it is expected that in 2023 there will be a production of about 34 million tons of paddy. division producesrice In 2022/23, the planting area is expected to be 62.92 million paddy, a decrease of 0.15%, a yield of 26.70 million tons of paddy, a decrease of 0.39% and a yield of 424 kilograms, a decrease of 0.24% from its compared to the previous year. This is because some production areas in the north-east and south have switched to planting other crops that produce better returns, such as sugarcane for integrated farming Some sources are planting other crops with lower costs. and easier to care for, like cassava

Although production in the northern and central regions has increased in vacant plots. But it is not a large amount. Due to high cost of production, including fertilizers, chemicals, the overall planting area is reduced. and production areas in the North East were flooded at the end of August. continue until Oct. 2022, when the rice is nearing the harvest long term floods cause the rice plants to fall and rot Unable to harvest crops

while off-season rice In 2023, the planting area is expected to be 11.37 million, producing 7.78 million tons of paddy. and the yield of those of 650 kilograms, an increase of 19.5%, yielding 6.17 million tons of paddy An increase of 19.62% and the yield of those of 646 kilograms, an increase of 0.62% compared to the year 2022 due to the large amount of water. is favorable to expand space and the rice plant is growing well However, farmers will harvest between February and April, a total of 4.22 million tonnes of paddy.

inmarketing According to the integrated rice production and marketing plan for the year 2022/23, the domestic demand is determined. For industrial use and seed production, a total of 16.88 million tons of paddy, a decrease of 4.59% due to the COVID-19 epidemic, leading to the beginning of 2022 tourists reduce travel make the restaurant/hotel Reduce the reserves of materials raw for cooking However, the situation in terms of domestic use may tend to be. An improvement in tourism during the year-end holidays

Export In 2023, Thailand is expected to export about 7.50 – 8.00 million tons of rice. According to the global economy it is expected to continue growing from mid-2022 and the price of Thai rice is still at a competitive level. The price will still be in good condition. according to the global economic situation it is expected to return to normal

but also Risk factors that must be monitored and monitored in rice policy In foreign countries such as the Philippines, the government has extended the MFN Tariff Rate reduction period for another year until the end of 2022 for rice imported from non-ASEAN countries. A 40 percent quota, outside the 50 percent quota, adjusts the new tax rate to 35 percent, both in the quota and outside the quota, so it can affect the amount of rice imported from Thailand.

Vietnam, the government increased the rice Export target in 2022, focusing on high quality rice, including soft fragrant rice of the ST25 variety, to increase export value and increase farmers’ income. with an emphasis on exporting to China, Japan and the European Union Moreover, the European Union Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and the UK-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA) between the European Union and the UK have made Vietnam is an advantage in terms of rice exports to the EU and UK market which is a market with high standards In addition, Vietnamese rice is cheaper than Thai rice. As a result, Thailand may be at risk of losing. Vietnam rice market share in the future

Myanmar aims to increase rice exports from 2 million tonnes to 4 million tonnes by 2025, focusing on high-quality rice varieties. (higher quality types) as demand is expected to increase in China, the European Union and countries in South East Asia such as the Philippines.

The government of Bangladesh has announced a reduction in duties and taxes on rice imports to 25 percent from the 62.5 percent previously levied in order to boost rice supply in the country as crops have been damaged by floods and the country is in its find it difficult. years

The Indian government announces a ban on the export of broken rice AND imposes a 20 percent export tax rate on paddy, brown rice, polished brown rice or white rice, causing Indian rice to command a higher price similar to Thai rice. As a result, some importers turned to buy better quality Thai rice. Delivered on time and complete as ordered.

There is also Conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine Many countries import rice to ensure that there is enough rice for domestic consumption. There is also a demand for rice to replace cereal products which have increased prices such as corn and wheat which have increased significantly. Used as raw material for animal feed Therefore, it is an opportunity for Thailand to export more rice, especially broken rice. to stock up on the endless uncertainty of the conflict situation

cargo management system (Logistics) Logistics is an important external factor. which affects the potential of Thailand’s rice exports Especially the cost of shipping by ship, which in 2021 is a shortage problem. container and the continuous increase in freight rates Causing the cost of transporting Thai rice to increase more than 3 times, but at the end of 2022, the freight situation has a better direction. The National Transport Council of Thailand expects that freight rates will likely decrease. Therefore, it is good for Thai entrepreneurs that the shipping cost will be reduced.

exchange rate fluctuationswhere the baht devalued has a positive effect on the competitiveness of Thai rice exports This makes the export price of Thai rice closer to that of competitors.

natural disaster Disaster situations in foreign countries that are Thailand’s main trading partners and competitors. As a result, Thailand has the opportunity to export more rice. In 2023, it is expected that the threat of global warming will intensify and the need to watch for disasters, including floods and droughts around the world.